An extraordinary surge in early voting this weekend in the New York City mayoral election has political insiders seeking clues about which candidate stands to benefit: Zohran Mamdani, Andrew Cuomo, or Curtis Sliwa? Opinions remain divided.
On Saturday—the first day of early voting—five times as many New Yorkers cast ballots compared to the first day of early voting in the mayoral election four years ago. Manhattan led the surge with 24,046 ballots cast, up from 4,563 in 2019. Brooklyn and Queens also experienced five-fold increases, with 22,105 and 19,045 voters casting ballots respectively. The Bronx and Staten Island trailed these boroughs but still recorded significant increases over four years ago.
“I imagine it’s good for Mamdani because he is the change candidate,” says Democratic strategist Michael Hardaway. “I think this election is about people who are pissed off about the cost of living in New York City.”
The Democratic candidate, Zohran Mamdani, has made affordability the central message of his campaign, promising New Yorkers free buses, free childcare, and a rent freeze on subsidized apartments. He holds a double-digit lead in all major polls heading into election day on November 4.
Mamdani secured victories in Brooklyn, Manhattan, and Queens during June’s Democratic primary against Governor Andrew Cuomo, who has since turned independent and is now Mamdani’s chief challenger in the general election. Some political observers suggest the strong early voting turnout in the boroughs Mamdani won bodes well for his campaign.
However, the New York City Board of Elections does not provide early voting breakdowns beyond borough totals. Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf notes, “It’s impossible to know if the voters coming out in Manhattan or Brooklyn are from neighborhoods that favor Mr. Cuomo or Mr. Mamdani.”
The Board of Elections maintains a real-time polling site wait time map. Although Sunday’s early voting numbers have yet to be released, the map revealed over a 50-minute wait at a polling location on the Upper East Side—a potentially positive sign for Cuomo.
“They will not be voting for Mamdani,” Sheinkopf says of the Upper East Side, especially considering Mamdani’s socialist views revealed during the lengthy campaign.
Long wait times were also reported on the Upper West Side, which split evenly between Mamdani and Cuomo in the primary; in downtown Brooklyn; and just north of Central Park in Harlem, areas Mamdani won previously.
The Lower East Side of Manhattan also saw long waits on Sunday. This area includes pockets that Cuomo won in June’s primary. Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods in Brooklyn experienced moderate to heavy wait times as well.
“Staten Islanders are not voting for Mamdani. The Bronx—if they are cooperative apartment owners voting—they’re not stupid; they’re not going to vote for Mamdani,” Sheinkopf comments. “It depends on where those votes are coming from.”
Regarding Brooklyn’s Jewish voters, he adds, “They are not voting for Mamdani, except for the idiots and the brownstone belt.”
“We won’t know until the middle of this week,” Sheinkopf concludes.
The Cuomo campaign is attempting to spin the early voting surge in their favor. “It’s been clear most voters don’t want New York City to be a socialist experiment with a diminished police force, no jails, decriminalized prostitution, and a weakened education system that encourages mediocrity,” Cuomo’s spokesperson Rich Azzopardi said in a statement to the Sun. “This is the most important election of our lifetime, and the turnout thus far shows that New Yorkers know it.”
Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa also believes these numbers benefit him. “I’ve urged my followers to take my lead from yesterday when I voted early,” he told the Sun.
Mamdani, backed by the Democratic Socialists of America, ran an impressive voter turnout operation during the primary, knocking on 1.6 million doors and making two million phone calls.
For Cuomo to secure a victory, he will need record turnout. Just over one million New Yorkers voted in the 2021 mayoral election, and this year’s totals are expected to surpass that number.
Hardaway sums it up: “Let’s be honest, how many Cuomo voters are excited, and how many are just voting against the other guy?”
https://www.nysun.com/article/early-voting-surges-in-new-york-mayoral-race-but-whom-does-this-benefit
