Bitcoin Set to End October in the Red, Breaking a Six-Year “Uptober” Streak
Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to close October in the red for the first time in seven years, ending a remarkable run of strong gains during the month known colloquially as “Uptober.” Traders remain divided on what this means for the months ahead — with some warning of a significant correction and others anticipating fresh highs in Q4.
Bitcoin Snaps “Uptober” Streak
For the past six years, October has been a favorable month for Bitcoin, delivering consistent price increases. Since 2013, October has gained the reputation as one of Bitcoin’s best-performing months, with only two negative closes in 2014 and 2018. From 2019 through 2024, Bitcoin saw six consecutive years of gains in October.
However, this year the pattern appears to be breaking. As of writing, Bitcoin is trading around 3.35% lower in October with only hours left before the month closes. Analyst Jelle noted on X (formerly Twitter), “Last day of the month we need a strong green candle today or we’ll see our first red October close in 7 years.”
The October losses were worsened by a mid-month flash crash triggered by escalating US-China tariff tensions. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s modest 25 basis point rate cut announced last Wednesday failed to boost investor confidence significantly.
TraderAAG pointed out the market’s humbling experience this month: “October turned red for the first time in 7 years! The crypto market humbled a lot of traders this month — momentum faded, confidence shaken.” Meanwhile, analyst Crypto Damus remarked that the volatility witnessed was “nothing normal,” especially given October’s historical status as the year’s second-best month for Bitcoin.
Uncertain Outlook for November
Looking ahead, opinions among traders and analysts are split. Some view the red October as “just a setup for an even bigger November rally.” Others caution that the Bitcoin bull cycle may have been rattled and could be approaching its end.
Analyst Crypto Rover recalled that when Bitcoin last closed October in the red (2018), November saw a harsh 36.57% decline, prompting the question: “Should we be worried this time?”
Author and analyst Timothy Peterson weighed in on the significance of October’s performance: “What does a weak October mean for Bitcoin?” His assessment suggests there is essentially “no correlation between October and subsequent months.” However, he also noted that Bitcoin’s growth often slows in Q4 following a weak October.
According to Peterson, the average three-month return for Bitcoin after a weak October since 2016 is 11%, compared to 21% following strong Octobers.
Q4 Remains Historically Strong for Bitcoin
Despite the current setback, historical trends show that November is Bitcoin’s strongest month, averaging gains of 46% across 12 years since 2013. The October to December quarter is typically the best for Bitcoin, with average returns around 78%, according to CoinGlass data.
Recent years reflect this trend, with Bitcoin rallying approximately 57% in Q4 2023 and 48% in Q4 2024. Notably, 2017 saw an exponential surge, with gains of 480% between October 1 and December 1. Even during bear markets, Q4 losses like -42% in 2018 and -15% in 2022 have been outliers rather than the norm.
Given historical patterns, the last quarter of the year consistently delivers significant price moves. If this trend continues, Bitcoin’s price action could dramatically reverse in November, potentially surging toward $150,000 by the end of 2025.
Disclaimer: This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk. Readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
