Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down Michigan State’s football game against Penn State, set for 3:40 p.m. Saturday at Spartan Stadium.
**TV:** CBS
**Betting line:** Penn State -7
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### 1. Alessio Milivojevic’s Encore
MSU coach Jonathan Smith hasn’t officially announced Alessio Milivojevic as the Spartans’ starting quarterback this week, but it’s hard to imagine any other choice. Milivojevic wasn’t perfect in his first start two weeks ago at Minnesota, but the redshirt freshman did some good things and showed some promising traits—none more important than his ability and willingness to hang in the pocket against pressure. That’s not something easily taught.
Statistically, Minnesota boasts a better pass rush than Penn State, but the Nittany Lions have more talent on the edges. Milivojevic’s courage will be tested again.
Where he struggled was in the red zone. Some of that was on the play calling. It will be interesting to see how MSU sets him up in those situations or whether the coaches turn to Aidan Chiles near the goal line, given the challenges Chiles’ legs can create for defenses.
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### 2. Penn State’s State of Mind
I should start trusting that MSU’s players will show up and play hard—they have for quite a few games in a row now. There’s no reason to think it won’t happen in their final game of the season at Spartan Stadium.
The Nittany Lions, on the other hand, leave me wondering about their mindset this week. Penn State is coming off marquee games against Ohio State and Indiana. Regardless of how your season was going, it’s easy to be focused and fired up for those contests. Now that the Nittany Lions have lost both games—the latest to Indiana in heartbreaking fashion—I wonder how dialed in they’ll be for an off-the-radar (albeit CBS-televised) trip to East Lansing to face another team that’s 0-6 in the Big Ten.
Penn State certainly has more talent than MSU (though the Nittany Lions are banged up), but so much of winning in college football is about preparation and focus throughout the week.
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### 3. MSU’s Offensive Line vs. Penn State’s Pass Rush
The Spartans’ offensive line found its footing in the second half at Minnesota after allowing six first-half sacks. Penn State hasn’t gotten to the quarterback as often as the Gophers, but the Nittany Lions’ edge players—Dani Dennis-Sutton and Zuriah Fisher—and defensive tackle Zane Durant are all capable pass rushers.
Their prowess showed last week when they sacked Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza three times and hurried him repeatedly. If MSU doesn’t shore up its pass protection from the opening drive, this could be a rough day offensively—and one that forces MSU to use multiple quarterbacks.
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### 4. Can Nick Marsh Break Loose?
Nick Marsh’s numbers this season don’t fully explain how scary he is to defenses. The way defenses cover him reveals more. He’s getting “star treatment” game after game; otherwise, he’d have more than 46 catches for 554 yards and five touchdowns this season.
Those are good numbers, but Marsh is yet to have a breakout game where it doesn’t matter what a defense does—he’s just too much to handle. I believe he’s got that game in him.
Penn State’s pass defense is among its strengths; the Nittany Lions are more vulnerable against the run. Still, MSU could use a memorable day from Marsh and a little joy from their star in an otherwise dark season.
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### 5. The Spartan Stadium Crowd
I was asked early this week whether I thought the crowd at Spartan Stadium for Saturday’s game would exceed 30,000. It’s going to be a warm day for mid-November, and it is the final game at Spartan Stadium this season.
I think the crowd will be closer to 50,000 at kickoff, even if the start of firearms hunting season chips away a couple thousand.
If I’m wrong—if Spartan Stadium feels barren and unwelcoming to the home team, or if things go wrong early for MSU and the crowd grows surly and sparse—this might not be much of a home-field advantage at all.
I believe fans want to support these players. They’re curious about Milivojevic. They want to see this team win a non-vacated Big Ten game for the first time since 2021. But we’ll see. Fans’ feelings about this team, coaching staff, and the program are all over the place.
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### Prediction
If Penn State is locked in and ready for a fight, the Nittany Lions might be too much for MSU. This is, after all, a team that was once considered the most talented in the country before everything went wrong—starting quarterback out for the season, head coach fired, and more.
We’ve seen MSU rise up and play good games at home against Penn State in the past. Maybe that happens again.
The Spartans certainly are in a better spot, coming off the bye, while Penn State arrives after tough back-to-back games against Indiana and Ohio State.
**Final Score Prediction:** Penn State 25, MSU 20
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**Contact Graham Couch:**
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: [@Graham_Couch](https://twitter.com/Graham_Couch) | BlueSky: @GrahamCouch
https://sports.yahoo.com/article/michigan-state-football-vs-penn-110809163.html
