**Market Outlook: Elevated Volatility and Key Events for October 13–17, 2025**
Elevated volatility continues to stir up the markets, impacting not only the US dollar and major stock indices but also other major currencies across the board. The highlight of last week was the release of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes on Wednesday. Investors remain cautious, expecting two more rate cuts this year, which is preventing the US dollar from staging a significant upward correction.
Looking ahead, the key events for next week will be the publication of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday and Thursday. Additionally, from October 13 to 19, 2025, market participants will closely watch crucial macroeconomic data releases from Germany, the UK, China, Australia, and the US.
*Note: New events may be added to the calendar or some scheduled events canceled during the week. All times are GMT.*
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### Weekly Overview
– **Monday, October 13:** No significant macroeconomic statistics scheduled.
– **Tuesday, October 14:** Release of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, German Final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), and UK labor market data.
– **Wednesday, October 15:** China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and US CPI.
– **Thursday, October 16:** Australian labor market data, US Producer Price Index (PPI), and US retail sales.
– **Friday, October 17:** No important macroeconomic statistics scheduled.
**Key event of the week:** US CPI and PPI reports.
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### Monday, October 13
No important macroeconomic statistics are scheduled for release. The US and Canadian markets will be closed for national holidays, which is likely to result in low trading volumes. However, this thin market environment could still lead to sharp price swings driven by speculative activity. The Asian session may see some movement due to macroeconomic data from China.
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### Tuesday, October 14
**00:30 AUD – Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes**
The RBA publishes its meeting minutes two weeks after the interest rate decision. If the RBA expresses optimism about the labor market and GDP growth while maintaining a hawkish stance on inflation, a rate increase at the next meeting could be expected, which would support the Australian dollar. Conversely, dovish comments may pressure the currency.
At its August 2025 meeting, the RBA cut interest rates by 0.25% to 3.60%, marking a shift from a 12-year high of 4.35%. The decision reflected easing inflationary pressures and global uncertainties. The rate was held steady at 3.60% in September. RBA Governor Michele Bullock indicated the possibility of gradual rate reductions but emphasized the need for further data on core inflation. Unexpected revelations in these minutes could increase AUD volatility.
**06:00 EUR – German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) Final Estimate**
The HICP measures inflation using a methodology agreed upon by all EU countries and guides the European Central Bank (ECB) in monetary policy decisions. A positive reading strengthens the euro, while a negative result weakens it. Recent data shows a slowing inflation pace in Germany, contributing to ECB easing amid recession risks in the Eurozone. A better-than-expected reading may cause short-term euro appreciation; conversely, weaker data could weigh on the currency. The preliminary September estimate was +2.4% YoY.
**06:00 GBP – UK Average Weekly Earnings and Unemployment Rate**
The UK Office for National Statistics will release average weekly earnings data for the last three months, including and excluding bonuses, alongside the unemployment rate. Earnings growth is positive for the British pound, while below-forecast figures are unfavorable. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.7%. Historical trends show steady improvements in earnings and employment, which generally support GBP strength. Market volatility is expected upon release.
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### Wednesday, October 15
**01:30 CNY – China Consumer Price Index (CPI)**
China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases monthly consumer price data. Rising consumer prices may signal accelerating inflation, prompting the People’s Bank of China to adopt a tighter fiscal stance, which could support the yuan and commodity currencies. Conversely, weaker inflation pressures may weigh on these currencies. Given China’s status as the world’s second-largest economy and key commodity market player, the data influences global markets broadly. August 2025 CPI stood at 0% month-over-month (-0.4% YoY).
**12:30 USD – US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI**
The US CPI measures price changes across a basket of goods and services and is a primary indicator of inflation. Core CPI excludes food and energy for a clearer inflation assessment. Higher than expected readings typically strengthen the US dollar by indicating potential for continued Federal Reserve rate hikes; lower readings tend to weaken the currency. Inflation currently remains above the Fed’s 2% target, forcing a careful balancing act regarding interest rates.
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### Thursday, October 16
**00:30 AUD – Australian Employment and Unemployment Rates**
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will report monthly employment changes and the unemployment rate. Increases in employment and decreases in the unemployment rate signal economic strength and typically boost the Australian dollar. The job market data influence the RBA’s monetary policy. The unemployment rate has held steady at 4.2%, with employment showing recent gains. Lower than expected figures may prompt a drop in the AUD, while stronger data could lend support.
**12:30 USD – Producer Price Index (PPI)**
The US PPI measures wholesale price changes and serves as a leading inflation indicator. Rising producer prices often foreshadow higher consumer inflation and tend to strengthen the US dollar by supporting tighter Fed policy. Conversely, weak PPI readings may increase expectations of easing monetary policy, putting downward pressure on the USD.
**12:30 USD – US Retail Sales and Retail Sales Control Group**
Retail sales data reflect consumer spending behavior, a key driver of US economic growth and inflation. Strong retail sales typically strengthen the US dollar, whereas weak sales could lead to USD depreciation. The Retail Sales Control Group, which excludes volatile items, helps gauge the underlying trend of consumption. Recent figures showed modest growth, reinforcing the importance of upcoming data releases.
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### Friday, October 17
No significant macroeconomic data are scheduled. The markets remain attentive to the week’s data releases, particularly the US CPI and PPI reports.
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### Real-Time USDX Price Chart
Traders and investors are encouraged to monitor the real-time US Dollar Index (USDX) price chart to track the greenback’s reaction to upcoming data releases and market developments.
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**Summary:**
Next week is packed with important data that could influence central bank policies and currency movements, especially the US CPI and PPI reports. Market participants should remain vigilant for unexpected developments amid sustained volatility.
Stay tuned for updates throughout the week as new events may emerge or schedules change.
https://www.litefinance.org/blog/analysts-opinions/weekly-economic-calendar-for-13102025-19102025/
