AI market cooling could push investment flows toward India

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Market watchers are paying close attention to a larger worldwide trend that could reshape the flow of money into Indian stocks. One key question is what will happen to the ongoing boom in artificial intelligence (AI) investments.

### Indian Stocks Lag Behind AI Boom

Indian stocks have not kept pace with gains seen in other markets this year, partly because the country lacks companies focused purely on AI technology. Meanwhile, major financial institutions have issued warnings about potential AI market corrections. Some analysts are drawing parallels between the current situation and previous technology bubbles.

Analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities suggest that India’s best chance to attract global investors again might ironically come if the worldwide AI investment craze collapses. Investment levels in AI companies have reached very high levels, raising concerns about sustainability and whether this hype represents a market bubble. While some investors are already questioning if AI-related companies are overvalued, opinions vary on whether prices will actually decline.

If money does exit expensive AI stocks, some fast-growing Indian businesses—many of which have yet to generate strong cash flows—could still attract significant investment, according to these analysts.

### Indian Markets Show Caution Amid Global Uncertainty

Indian stock markets are currently showing little movement, mirroring the largely calm trading across the region. Weak economic figures from the United States, coupled with uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s next steps, have pushed investors worldwide to adopt a cautious approach. Indian markets are not immune to this hesitance.

### IPO Market Remains Strong

However, the scene for new stock offerings presents a different story. According to Cryptopolitan, the U.S. IPO market is experiencing its hottest activity since 2021, and India’s primary market is following a similar pattern.

Lenskart’s $821 million public listing attracted strong investor interest despite concerns about the company’s valuation. Today, another major offering from Groww, worth $747 million, begins accepting bids from investors.

At the same time, several large companies—including State Bank of India, Adani Enterprises, and Mahindra & Mahindra—are preparing to announce their financial results.

### Vodafone Idea Shares Jump on Court Ruling

Shares of Vodafone Idea surged 10 percent after India’s highest court made a significant ruling. The court affirmed that the government has the right to review all dues owed by the troubled phone company up until the financial year ending on March 31, 2017. This review can also include interest charges and penalties.

Currently, Vodafone Idea owes close to 2 trillion rupees (approximately $22.5 billion). What remains unclear is how much the company might save if officials only review bills from this specific timeframe.

Despite the sharp price increase, the shares closed the day below their highest point from the past year, which was recorded on October 27—when the court first announced this review possibility. This suggests that investors remain skeptical about how much the court’s decision will ultimately benefit the company.

### Corporate Earnings Beat Expectations

There is ongoing debate about whether global investors are genuinely returning to India. However, companies themselves are delivering strong financial results. The earnings reporting period has now reached its midpoint, and Motilal Oswal Institutional Equities reports that company profits grew 14 percent compared to last year, surpassing their earlier forecast of 9 percent growth.

Most of these gains were driven by companies dealing in raw materials and mid-sized firms. As a result, the financial firm raised its profit forecast for the Nifty 50 index slightly.

The key question now is whether companies reporting in the second half of the year will maintain this pace or perform even better.

### Foreign Investors Pull Back Amid Concerns

Even with positive results coming from some market segments, foreign investors continue to pull back from areas where valuations appear too high or growth prospects face uncertainties.

Morgan Stanley highlights heavy selling by foreign investors in consumer companies like Trent and Brainbees Solutions during the three months ending in September. Both were once celebrated as fast-growing businesses, but their stock prices have tumbled this year as enthusiasm for India’s growth story has cooled.

Foreign investments in India have dropped significantly, with startups and markets struggling amid mounting economic challenges. So far in 2025, foreign investment funds have withdrawn more than $15 billion from the country’s stock market.

As global trends and domestic factors continue to influence the market, Indian stocks face a complex path ahead. Investors and analysts alike will be watching closely as the AI investment craze, IPO activity, and corporate earnings unfold in the coming months.
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