USD gains stall for the time being – Scotiabank

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**US Dollar Trading Narrowly Mixed as Risk Sentiment Remains Soft**

The US Dollar (USD) is trading narrowly mixed against major currency peers this morning, with risk sentiment retaining a soft undertone, according to Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret.

DXY gains have stalled near resistance in the low 100 area. Earlier today, European stocks bounced in early trade, but have since given back gains as yesterday’s tech sell-off in the US continues to weigh on sentiment. US equity futures are drifting into the red, while bonds maintain a modest bid. Gold is slightly firmer.

Net gains or losses among major currencies are largely minor, suggesting a holding pattern in FX markets as traders await fresh developments in equities or economic fundamentals. With the US government shutdown now entering its 35th—and record-equaling—day, private sector data released this morning may have some influence.

**Key Data Releases to Watch**

Final October Services and Composite PMIs, alongside the preliminary October Services ISM (expected to reflect a small gain in momentum), will provide insight into how the economy is shaping up as the year comes to a close. It’s also notable that the Supreme Court will consider challenges to tariffs implemented under the president’s emergency powers today. While a decision is not expected until the New Year, a ruling against the measures could push President Trump to pursue tariffs through a more convoluted process.

**Technical Perspective**

DXY gains are showing signs of stalling this morning just above the 100 level, slightly below the 200-day moving average (100.35) and right in line with the August 1 high, coinciding with the July jobs report release—a zone of important technical resistance. Should the USD push through the low 100 level, the broader rebound may extend significantly in the coming weeks. Alternatively, a stall and reversal implies a continuation of the broad consolidation range for DXY that has been in place since mid-year.

**Looking Ahead**

This evening, Japan will release wage data, and Australia will publish trade data, both of which could influence FX markets in the next session. Stay tuned for further updates as market participants monitor shifting risk sentiment and key data releases.
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