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EUR/JPY range-bound below 181.00 amid BoJ hike bets, ECB optimism

The post EUR/JPY range-bound below 181. 00 amid BoJ hike bets, ECB optimism appeared com. The EUR/JPY pair struggles to capitalize on a modest intraday uptick on Wednesday and remains below the 181. 00 round figure through the Asian session. Meanwhile, mixed fundamental cues keep spot prices confined in the weekly range and warrant some caution before placing aggressive directional bets. The Japanese Yen (JPY) gets a minor lift after reports indicated that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has intentionally shifted messaging to highlight the inflationary risks of a persistently weak domestic currency and that a December rate hike remains a live option. This comes on top of Japan’s Services Producer Price Index, which rose 2. 7% in October from a year earlier and suggested that the BoJ remains on the cusp of durably meeting its 2% inflation target. This reaffirms hawkish BoJ expectations and underpins the JPY, capping the upside for the EUR/JPY cross. The JPY bulls, however, seem reluctant amid concerns about Japan’s ailing fiscal position on the back of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro-stimulus stance. Furthermore, the prevalent risk-on mood as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets contributes to capping the safe-haven JPY. The shared currency, on the other hand, benefits from a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) and seems unaffected by the second estimate of German GDP, which showed that the Eurozone’s largest economy remained stagnant in the third quarter of 2025. Investors, however, seem convinced next year’s full-scale fiscal stimulus should be enough to finally improve conditions for the German economy. Germany’s 2026 draft budget projects around €525 billion in spending, marking a significant increase over the previous year. This, along with expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) is done cutting interest rates, could underpin the Euro (EUR) and support the EUR/JPY cross. Traders now look to scheduled speeches from ECB’s chief economist Philip Lane.

byadminNovember 25, 2025

general

Overbought RSI flashes caution, but upside bias intact

The post Overbought RSI flashes caution, but upside bias intact appeared com. USD/JPY extends its upward trajectory on Wednesday, with the pair surging to levels last seen in mid-January. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 156. 54, up nearly 0. 65%, marking a third straight day of gains as a strong US Dollar (USD) and a broadly weaker Japanese Yen (JPY) continue to provide a double boost. The technical backdrop remains firmly bullish. Since breaking out of the multi-month choppy consolidation range in early October, the pair has maintained a steady sequence of higher highs and higher lows, reflecting strong directional momentum. A bullish opening gap sparked the breakout above the 150. 00 psychological level, initially driven by reports that Sanae Takaichi was set to become Japan’s next Prime Minister. Markets interpreted this as a signal of potential fiscal expansion, weakening the Yen. Once she officially assumed office, confirmation of a large-scale fiscal stimulus plan strengthened those expectations further, keeping the Yen under persistent downward pressure. Price action remains comfortably above all major Simple Moving Averages (21-SMA, 50-SMA, 100-SMA) on the daily chart, underlining buyer dominance and reinforcing the bullish trend structure. On the topside, the January 23 swing high at 156. 75 serves as immediate resistance. A clear break above this level could pave the way for a retest of the year-to-date high at 158. 88, marked on January 10. On the downside, 155. 00 is the first line of support, followed by the 21-day SMA at 153. 86. While Japanese authorities have issued intermittent verbal warnings about excessive Yen weakness, concrete intervention remains absent, making a deeper corrective pullback possible but not the base case in the near term. Momentum indicators warrant some caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 72, holding in overbought territory, which could slow bullish follow-through or prompt brief consolidation. However, no clear bearish divergence has formed yet. US.

byadminNovember 19, 2025

general

AUD/JPY steadies near 99.00 after China’s trade balance data

The post AUD/JPY steadies near 99. 00 after China’s trade balance data appeared com. The AUD/JPY cross oscillates in a narrow trading range, around the 99. 00 mark during the Asian session on Friday, and remains within striking distance of a two-week low, retested the previous day. Meanwhile, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of bearish traders and backs the case for an extension of the recent pullback from the 101. 20 area, or the year-to-date high, touched in October. Data released earlier today pointed to signs of cooling private consumption in Japan, which, along with Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro-stimulus stance, could allow the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to resist policy tightening. This holds back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the Japanese Yen (JPY) and acts as a tailwind for the AUD/JPY cross. However, minutes of the BoJ’s September policy meeting, released on Wednesday, kept hopes alive for an imminent rate hike. Apart from this, a generally weaker tone around the equity markets offers some support to the safe-haven JPY and undermines the risk-sensitive Aussie. Meanwhile, the disappointing release of Trade Balance data from China suggested weak domestic demand in the world’s second-largest economy amid trade-related uncertainties. Moreover, the lack of any major hawkish surprise from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) weighs on the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD). The aforementioned factors validate the near-term negative outlook and suggest that the path of least resistance for the AUD/JPY cross remains to the downside. Some follow-through selling below the 98. 80 region, or the weekly through, will reaffirm the negative bias and pave the way for a fall towards testing sub-98. 00 levels. Economic Indicator Trade Balance CNY The Trade Balance released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while.

byadminNovember 6, 2025